| Symbol | Name | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Volume | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZCZ26 | Corn | 454.75 | 455.50 | 449.00 | 452.00 | ▼ -2.75 | 190,744 | 2026-07-09 |
| ZSX26 | Soybean | 1,189.50 | 1,194.25 | 1,178.00 | 1,181.50 | ▼ -8.00 | 144,493 | 2026-07-09 |
| ZWU26 | Wheat | 606.75 | 621.25 | 602.25 | 619.75 | ▲ +13.00 | 85,881 | 2026-07-09 |
As of July 2, U.S. exporters had sold 3.38 billion bushels of corn for 2025/26 shipment, already above USDA's latest full-year forecast of 3.325 billion. USDA may need to hike old-crop corn exports on Friday, but by how much?
Karen Braun
West Central Indiana: we did not receive much, if any, rainfall this week. Corn and soybeans look good, except for the sections of fields that have received too much rain. July is very important for pollination; more rain and normal temperatures are needed in my area to help shallow rooted corn. Farmers in my area have been able to finish spraying soybeans. Not much corn fungicide has been applied, I expect next week to see more activity in this regard. Humidity is very high, and I have heard several agronomists reporting of disease showing up in corn fields.
Chuck Shelby
December corn holds its 18 day average ahead of today's WASDE
The trade awaits USDA's July WASDE at 11:00 AM central, the first balance sheet since the June 30 acreage and stocks data. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones see 2025/26 ending stocks near 2.077 billion bushels, down from June, with new crop stocks possibly below 1.90 billion and yield held at 183.0. Export commitments run near 25 percent ahead of last year, and USDA reported 285,775 tonnes of corn sold to Mexico for 2026/27. Bulls lean on that demand, while favorable crop weather keeps the bears engaged.
December corn futures settled Thursday at 452.00, down 4.25, with a session range of 449.00 to 455.50. At the time of writing this, the contract trades near 454.00, up 2.00, after probing an overnight low of 447.50. Price holds just above the 18-day simple moving average at 444.07, while the 55-, 100- and 200-day averages from 467.00 to 473.00 cap rallies. Daily RSI near 49.9 keeps momentum balanced, neither overbought nor oversold.
Dan Hussey
Flash sales to China didn't help bean prices
Yesterday, we saw some flash bean sales: 136KT to China for 26/27 and 120KT to unknown. However, this wasn't enough to support bean prices, as August beans were off -.154 cents and November off -.106 cents. The usual Thursday morning export sales showed a total of 17MB, 2MB old crop and 15MB new crop. Most of the new crop sales were to unknown. Today at 11:00 AM, the July WASDE report will be out. The average trade estimate for US ending stocks for 2025/26 is 0.338MB, not a huge reduction from June's 0.340. Ending stocks for 2026/27 are estimated at 0.33MB, up slightly from June's 0.310MB. The world ending stocks are estimated at 125.17MMT. Not much change is expected in the South American production, with Argentina pegged at 50.08MMT and Brazil at 180.28MMT. Once this is out of the way, weather & any news out of China will be the dominating factors going forward
Some technical indicators are starting to roll over after this week's big run up. The RSI is at 58, so not near overbought just yet. The 50-day moving average is down at 11.685.
Sherman Newlin
Exports underwhelm, again. U.S. and World stocks potentially declining. WASDE on deck.
September Chicago wheat opened Thursday's session with a range of 606'0 to 609'1/4. 30 minutes later, wheat was on a mission, and within an hour and a half was trading 621 1/4. That is about where it stayed, closing at 619'0. The trade struggled to find a news headline to fit the rally off the lows. Export sales came in at 313,103 metric tons, near the low end of the 250,000 - 600,000 range. On WASDE Friday, the trade looks for U.S. ending stocks at 714 million bushels, down from 744 in June. World stocks seen at 273.2 million metric tons.
Productive day technically or simply position squaring? Either way, the whole world is waiting for Friday's WASDE update. A test of the 18-day moving average (603'0) took the market to 602 1/4. Not long after the day session opened, September wheat added 19'0 cents to get back above the 100-day moving average, 619 1/2. Almost 82k contracts traded. Funds short an estimated 58k contracts.
Joe Nikruto
Cattle down, but basis remains strong
August live cattle closed down $2.37 at $235.25, and August feeder cattle dropped sharply $5.90 to $356.15. Both markets traded lower on demand concerns tied to hot weather across the country. Box beef prices broke out of their recent range to the downside: choice fell $1.38 to $379.82 and select declined $1.10 to $364.19. Today’s cash cattle trade was reported at $250 FOB, $8 lower than last week, but the basis remains strong for hedgers. Last year we saw a similar setup around this time, followed by a solid rally into fall. We’ll see if that pattern repeats.
Average yield grade has tightened from 4 a few months ago to 3.1 today, confirming very current marketing. With more heat on the way, this should support continued movement of cattle. We’ve slipped below key support levels, but with a roughly $15 basis, downside looks limited. Time will tell.
Charlie White
WTI crude oil settled Thursday at 72.08, down 1.44, after Wednesday's 4.4 percent surge, its strongest session since May, as renewed U.S. and Iran hostilities returned the Strait of Hormuz to focus. At the time of writing this, August crude trades near 72.27. Price sits below the 18-day simple moving average at 73.01 and the 200-day at 74.05, with Daily RSI near 38.5, leaning weak. The trade weighs geopolitical supply risk against the EIA's July outlook, which trimmed its third quarter Brent forecast to 74.00 and sees smaller inventory draws as OPEC+ returns barrels.
Equities leaned the other way. The September E-mini S&P 500 settled at 7588.75, up 60.00, above every major moving average with RSI near 57.4, while the E-mini Nasdaq 100 jumped 468.50 to 29937.00 as chip strength and the SK Hynix listing lifted the AI trade despite the Iran flare up. Overnight, the Nasdaq eased to 29834.75 while the S&P held near 7589.75. June FOMC minutes showed officials split between a cut and a hike, leaving inflation the swing factor. Traders now watch Middle East headlines and coming inflation data.
Dan Hussey
Very minor changes were made to this week's run of the U.S. Drought Monitor, with only minor shrinkage to areas showing drought or abnormally dry conditions. The primary concern over the next week will be how fast the next high pressure heat dome moves out of the Great Plains. The heart of the Corn Belt will see a week of abnormally dry conditions. The Eastern Corn Belt should handle the next week well with a fully recharged soil moisture profile, but crop conditions in the Western Corn Belt could struggle until the heat moves out and the rain systems have a better chance to return in the last half of July.
Jason Clapp
Karen Braun’s Market Context Newsletter provides data-driven market commentary that helps readers understand the “why & how” in whatever hot topics are driving the markets.
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