| Symbol | Name | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Volume | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZCZ26 | Corn | 444.50 | 458.75 | 444.50 | 457.75 | ▲ +13.25 | 238,737 | 2026-07-06 |
| ZSX26 | Soybean | 1,153.00 | 1,197.00 | 1,153.00 | 1,192.25 | ▲ +39.25 | 260,810 | 2026-07-06 |
| ZWU26 | Wheat | 600.50 | 616.00 | 600.25 | 614.00 | ▲ +13.50 | 69,775 | 2026-07-06 |
CBOT December 2026 corn surged 3.7% on Monday, reaching one-month highs as Europe's corn crop deteriorates and potential Chinese buying excitement accelerates. This marked the largest single-day percentage gain in the contract's history. New-crop corn is trading about 37 cents per bushel above the year-ago price.
Karen Braun
Parke County, West Central Indiana
As of the last day of June, we've received 28 inches of rain for 2026. That puts our farm 5 inches over our 30 year average for this time of year. Even after all that rain, corn in our area was still showing heat stress at the end of last week. April planted corn is tasseled/silking and soybeans are well into their reproductive phase. Fungicides will be applied over the next couple of weeks. I'll start looking harder for disease starting this week. I haven't seen anything of consequence yet. For now, I'm planning on a late R3/Brown Silk fungicide application for corn barring a flare up of Tar Spot.
Jason Clapp
Weather scare sparks short covering rally toward corn's 200-day average
Monday's surge was a weather story, with the crop entering its critical pollination window as the 6 to 10 day outlook flagged above normal heat across the Corn Belt. The trade priced in thinning soil moisture, though forecasts also expanded rain coverage of 1.25 to 3 inches into the western Belt. The latest Commitment of Traders showed managed money net short near 74,800 contracts, leaving ample fuel for short covering. Conditions last read 67 percent good to excellent, with the holiday-delayed Crop Progress due Tuesday. Next WASDE report this Friday.
September corn settled at 438.25, up 15.25, after a 425.00 to 439.25 range. The rally vaulted back above the 18-day moving average at 416.53 and to the doorstep of the 200-day at 438.75. The stacked 55- and 100-day averages near 445.05 and 446.31 mark the next resistance. Daily RSI firmed to 59.2. At the time of writing this, September corn is holding near 438.00 overnight.
Dan Hussey
5 cargoes to China, weather premium infusion on big volume launch soybeans
Sunday, November soybeans opened at 1153'0 and traded as high as 1197'0 during Monday's day session, closing at 1192 1/4. Wire service headline Monday afternoon confirmed Chinese bean purchases of "at least 5 cargoes" for Sep/Nov delivery. Many were attributing strength across the grain floor to the high pressure ridge over parts of the corn belt and some models calling for high heat. With Chinese interest confirmed, the market will be keeping a close eye on the funds and weather ahead. NASS reported Monday 34% of soybeans blooming, 6% above average. Conditions reported down 1% to 64% good to excellent. Brazil Ag Ministry estimates June exports at 14.5 million metric tons vs last year's 13.42 million metric tons.
Convincing upside breakout of the recent 1120'0-1160'0 range with 254,000 contracts traded on Monday. COT showed funds long 31,200 contracts as of June 30. Safe bet it's a larger long position now. 1199'0 and 1207'0 are now upside targets/possible resistance. Contract high is 1214'0.
Joe Nikruto
Wheat shrugs off dismal export inspections, climbs toward test of 100-day
September Chicago wheat opens the week at 600 1/2, traded as high as 616'0 and closed on Monday at 614'0, up 14 1/4. Export inspections came in at 134,000 metric tons. Range of estimates was 300,000 to 500,000. Ouch. NASS reports 59% of winter wheat harvested. Spring wheat 54% headed. Conditions for spring wheat at 57% good to excellent, down 2%. French wheat conditions 68% good to excellent, down 6% from heat stress in European continues. IKAR lists Russian wheat export price at $226 per metric ton, down $5.
Double digit rally. Chicago September wheat took out Wednesday's high, 608 1/4. Monday's high, 616'0 got within 2 1/4 points of the 100-day moving average at 618 1/4. The market did not have the high volume confirmation we like to see on breakouts or aggressive directional moves, like beans on Monday, but wheat bottomed on very nice volume last week. COT highlighted funds short 69k contracts as of last week. Estimates have them short 67k coming into Monday.
Joe Nikruto
Mixed trade to end the day
Live cattle and feeders opened lower to start the day, but recovered into mixed/slightly-higher territory. Feeders had a $6.75 range, reaching $3 higher at one point, but couldn't hold those gains finishing mostly -.60/-.70 lower (hard to hold these gains with corn being up 15 cents). The feeder cattle index is at $385.69: a premium to the board, which could be supportive.
Midday boxes were lower, with Choice down $1.17 to $385.90 and Select down $2.47 to $364.96. Last week, cash trade for fats had some selling at $256, also a premium to the board. The COT report showed funds long 119,440 contracts off -6,143, feeder cattle still long 15,607 down -88, and short lean hogs -38,411 yet still down -4,759 contracts. Hogs were mixed, lower in the front two months but higher in all the others, with December up .95 cents to $74.325.
August live broke below the 100-day moving average for the first time in almost a month. The RSI for August is sitting at 40.26, not yet in oversold territory. August feeders managed to stay above its 100-day average ($359.49), with an RSI at 46.92.
Sherman Newlin
Wall Street opened the holiday shortened week on record footing. The September E-mini S&P 500 settled at 7591.50 and the E-mini Nasdaq 100 at 29941.00 as the cash indices notched record closes, with semiconductors leading; Broadcom, AMD, and Dell paced a broad technology bid. The move extended a supportive reaction to Thursday's soft June payrolls, where just 57,000 jobs revived expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The S&P sits above every major moving average, its 18-day at 7484.62, with Daily RSI at 58.5, firm but not yet overbought.
Crude told the opposite story. August WTI settled at 68.55, holding below every major moving average after OPEC+ approved another 188,000 barrel per day increase for August. Daily RSI sits at 27.6, deep in oversold territory. At the time of writing this, the E-mini S&P is easing to 7579.50 while crude bounces to 69.15. Traders eye Wednesday's EIA inventories and the approaching bank earnings season for guidance.
Dan Hussey
There were slight shifts overnight in the NOAA CPC 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day maps for the placement of the high pressure dome over the next two weeks. The areas expected to see below normal precipitation narrowed and moved slightly west. On Tuesday, there is a slight chance to see some severe weather through the Dakotas. Rains could also be seen across Nebraska, Central Iowa, and Minnesota. Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky will see increased chances for rain at the end of the week with potential for some severe storms.
Jason Clapp
Karen Braun’s Market Context Newsletter provides data-driven market commentary that helps readers understand the “why & how” in whatever hot topics are driving the markets.
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