| Symbol | Name | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Volume | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZCZ26 | Corn | 436.25 | 444.00 | 435.50 | 442.25 | ▲ +6.00 | 169,447 | 2026-07-01 |
| ZSX26 | Soybean | 1,143.00 | 1,161.25 | 1,139.25 | 1,149.25 | ▲ +6.25 | 124,041 | 2026-07-01 |
| ZWU26 | Wheat | 587.75 | 608.25 | 586.50 | 600.00 | ▲ +12.25 | 106,078 | 2026-07-01 |
Although it was by the narrowest of margins, U.S. soybean plantings on Tuesday came in below the average trade guess for a 12th consecutive June. The streak has survived wildly different market conditions, from $7.80 to $17.80 Chicago soybeans, ending stocks ranging from 92 million to 925 million bushels, historic acreage-slashing rains, a pandemic and two U.S.-China trade wars.
Karen Braun
The July 4th holiday weekend is often an inflection point in corn, depending on the forecast. If the current hot and dry conditions look to linger for the month of July, corn could be sharply higher.
Strategy: Buying the New Crop Corn Friday Week 2 450 Call for 4 cents (plus fees).
This is a short-term, defined-risk strategy using new crop Friday options based on the December corn futures. It expires on 7/10. If December corn is trading above $4.50 on 7/10, this option will turn into a long December corn position at $4.50. It can also be exited any time before expiration. It's intended as a re-ownership strategy, or as protection against a short hedge.
Speak with your Zaner professional to discuss what action might be best for you.
Ted Seifried
Parke County, West Central Indiana
Nothing says summertime on the farm like finding the hottest day of the year to ride an open station John Deere 4010 and bale hay. We have 150 acres of hay the goes toward feeding our own cattle, but mainly we sell to the local market consisting of small Amish farms, other cattle feeders, and those that still own or board some horses. Crops have responded positively to the heat this week, but we need the rain in our forecast this weekend. If we don't get this, we will have to turn on our irrigation units next week. Hard to imagine that with all the rain we've had, but that's how it goes on the gravel.
Jason Clapp
Bullish quarterly stocks surprise lifts corn back above its 18-day average
Corn's rally traces to Tuesday's USDA Grain Stocks report, where June 1 stocks of 5.29 billion bushels landed below the average trade estimate near 5.408 billion despite rising 14 percent from a year ago. March through May's disappearance of 3.74 billion bushels set a quarterly record versus 3.50 billion last year, a firmer demand read. The Acreage report pegged 2026 plantings at 95.3 million acres, slightly above expectations. The trade now turns to midsummer pollination weather and the July WASDE for direction.
September corn settled Wednesday at 422.75, up 6.00 on the day, trading from 415.75 to 424.75 and closing near session highs. The advance held price above the 18-day simple moving average at 415.14 for a second session, though it remains well below the 55-, 100- and 200-day averages stacked from 438.71 to 446.29. Daily RSI has turned up to 47.6, just under the neutral 50 line. At the time of writing this, September corn is 423.5, up 0.75.
Dan Hussey
Soybeans higher for 2nd day, is China looking to buy?
Beans were higher for the 2nd day in a row following Tuesday's bounce. Early morning, Beans shot up to a high of 11.612 in November on thoughts of China was "shopping around," but no confirmation as of yet. We'll have export sales this morning: estimates are 300,000-650,000MT for old crop and 350,000-900,000MT for new crop (maybe some China sales could show up there). Old crop beans led the way up with Aug. up +.09 cents to 11.332 and November up +.054 to 11.494. Bean oil was slightly lower on the heels of a lower crude oil market, with meal up $1.90 a ton to 305.3 for August. Crop ratings Monday and the outlook for weather into July onwards will have some sway on whether this rally continues.
New crop shot above the 100-day moving average (11.522) briefly but couldn't manage to close above it. The RSI is sitting mid range at 48.36, so no real help there. Next resistance level is 11.664, the 50-day average, which also coincides with the 50% retracement level of 11.676.
Sherman Newlin
Updated U.S. wheat picture. New longs rush in, short funds begin exit.
On Wednesday, Chicago wheat traded as high as 608 1/4, closing at 600'0, up 10 3/4 for the day. Follow through from Tuesday's bullish stocks and acreage update was evident in all 3 classes of wheat, including KC up 9 3/4 and MIAX up 12'0. Export sales numbers arrive Thursday: estimates are for 300,000 to 600,000 metric tons. Ag markets closed Friday to start the July 4th weekend.
Funds are short Chicago wheat some estimate 72k contracts. Open interest increased Tuesday in what was seen as new longs rushing into the market. Wednesday OI declined about 2k contracts - short traders getting stopped out above the 10- and 18-day moving averages. Wheat did close over relevant technical levels ( 200-day 591'0, 18-day 598 3/4, 10-day 599 1/2). A day later, volume is still strong, price action higher with room to run and funds on the wrong side. Higher prices may be required to find willing sellers if fund traders intend to exit their short position.
Joe Nikruto
Quiet trade ahead of the holiday
August live cattle futures down $0.60 to $241.82. August feeders down $0.45 to $264.15. Extremely quiet day with light volume as most traders head into the holiday weekend and await cash news. Packers offering $258 delivered in cash cattle trade, trying to take advantage of the upcoming heat; feedlots passing for better bids. Choice box beef up $1.72 to $393.16, select softer. Feeder cattle index down $2.99 to $377.40. August hogs down $1.15, back in the middle of consolidation. Negotiated trade at $97.58. Slaughter numbers steady to higher in recent weeks.
Charlie White
WTI crude extended its slide. August futures settled Wednesday at 68.58, down 0.92, and traded to 67.88 overnight at the time of writing this, the lowest since late February. Price sits far beneath every major moving average, the 18-day at 78.26 and the 200-day at 73.87, with Daily RSI oversold at 27.5. Driving the break, the trade points to easing geopolitical risk as US and Iran advance indirect talks and Strait of Hormuz shipping recovers, alongside swelling global supply. Bulls note the oversold reading, but the path of least resistance stays lower until inventories or OPEC+ signal a floor.
Equity index futures paused Wednesday after a blockbuster second quarter. The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) settled at 7543.50, down 4.75 within a 7505.75 to 7579.00 range, while the E-mini Nasdaq 100 (NQ) under performed, settling 30094.25, down 429.25 as the trade rotated out of megacap technology into defensives. A softer than expected ADP private payrolls print of 98,000 for June boosted rate cut hopes even as it stirred growth worries. Both contracts remain above all major moving averages, with S&P RSI at 55.7 and Nasdaq at 53.2. The trade awaits the June jobs report and Fed Chair Warsh.
Dan Hussey
Thursday should be the beginning of the end for the heat advisories/watches for the Midwest. Temperatures will remain high on the East Coast and Great Plains for a while longer. Scattered storms are possible in Northern Illinois, Northern Indiana, Wisconsin, and Iowa over the 4th of July weekend. Below are the GFS (top) and Euro (bottom) forecast for 14 day precipitation anomaly. GFS runs have been showing a return of a wetter pattern through the Corn Belt while the Euro is forecasting drier conditions for the first half of July.
Jason Clapp
Karen Braun’s Market Context Newsletter provides data-driven market commentary that helps readers understand the “why & how” in whatever hot topics are driving the markets.
Ted Seifried’s Daily Hotline highlights the day’s market happenings, top news, trends and what to look out for going forward.
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